the tindog coffeehouse

Does having a complex economy make a modern nation such as the United States more likely to collapse?

Yes, at least according to ultraconservative columnist and radio talk show host Jeffrey Nyquist, who argues that the fall of the Roman Empire in the fourth century could easily foretell a similar fate for the American Empire:

What led to Rome’s weakening? In describing the city of Rome in the middle of the fourth century, Ammianus Marcellinus wrote of the vanity and materialism of his contemporaries. Rome became great through virtue, he argued, and virtue had given way to vice. Decades before the barbarians broke into the empire, causing the economy to unravel, the Romans were focused on entertainment and self-gratification. “In this state of things,” wrote Marcellinus, “the few houses which once had the reputation of being centers of serious culture are now given over to the trivial pursuits of passive idleness…. Men put themselves to school to the singer instead of the philosopher, to the theatrical producer rather than the teacher of oratory. The libraries are like tombs, permanently shut; men manufacture water-organs and lutes the size of carriages and flutes and heavy properties for theatrical performances.”

To borrow a phrase from Neil Postman, the Romans were “entertaining themselves to death.” … The Roman Empire lost the ability, the willpower and the inner toughness to confront the shabby little barbarian tribes that collapsed its delicate economic mechanism.

He goes on to further echo the arguments of historian Bryan Ward-Perkins that the more specialized and complex a nation’s economy is, the more fragile it is. Such was the case with Rome, and therefore such is the case with America.

But is it?

Surely our society engages in plenty of vice, and we focus way too much on entertainment and self-gratification. No question about that. But just how vulnerable does that make us to attack from modern-day barbarians? I would say we are extremely vulnerable, but not necessarily because we watch too much television or have a complex, specialized economy.

In fact, the only reason we have so much leisure time is because our economy is complex and specialized. Through changes in technology, we have become much more efficient in producing goods and services. And with the rise of the global economy, we can use comparative advantage to benefit not only our nation, but other nations we trade with.

Does global economic trading make us weaker and more susceptible to collapse? I don’t think so. Sure, we’re much more dependent on China and India and OPEC, but they’re also dependent on us. After all, any trade involves both a buyer and a seller.

That’s not to say we aren’t invincible because clearly we’re not. There is always a risk in opening up your borders to trade and immigration. It might be lead-tainted toys from China, disease-harboring produce from South America, or Islamic terrorists from the Middle East.

But the benefits of economic interdependency far outweigh the risks, even during a global crisis like the one we’re facing now.

A lot has changed in the 1700 years since the Roman Empire collapsed. Yes, many of the underlying causes for their collapse should serve as lessons for us. But we also face a number of challenges the Romans could never have imagined. What those challenges will ultimately mean for future generations remains to be seen.

Previously:
‘Information overload’ vs. ‘cognitive surplus’
Long live capitalism