the tindog coffeehouse

Good news, people of Waco. Baylor’s not screwed after all!

In what can only be explained as a miracle (by football-loving Baptists, at least), the Big 12 has been saved from destruction, with the ten remaining members swearing allegiance to Dan Beebe and the unnamed sports network (*cough*FoxSports*cough*) that bribed them to stay.

Who would’ve guessed that at the end of the day all of this realignment mess was really just about money? Huh.

So for now, there are no 16-team superconferences. No realignmentpocalypse. No ripping of the very fabric of the time-space continuum. Heck, not even a single punch thrown (unless you count Vince Young’s pummeling of an irate OU fan outside a Dallas strip club). In fact, Big 12 ADs would be singing “Kum Ba Yah” right now if it weren’t for the fact that they were too busy counting their enormous stacks of cash.

Where, then, does that leave us?

Big 12.

Appreciate the irony for a moment that the Big Ten now has 12 teams while the Big 12 now has ten. I wonder if they’ll trade names. Probably not, but anyway…

The biggest winner by far out of this whole deal is the University of Texas. UT, OU, and A&M get more money than the other seven teams, plus UT gets the opportunity to create their own network, which has been their end-game all along. And now that the Big 12 Championship game is no longer, UT benefits even more. Other winners include Baylor and what’s left of the Big 12 North, who would’ve been kicked to the street if the Big 12 had imploded.

But the losers? Us, the fans. Seriously, if you’re a UT fan, how can you be happy that an already weak Big 12 has become exponentially weaker. I mean, how many times can you watch UT or OU beat the crap out of Kansas and Iowa State before you change the channel? At least with the Pac-16 arrangement, there was the possibility of Texas playing some tougher teams. Now, Texas and OU are virtually guaranteed at least 10 wins every season, even with mediocre players.

Pac-10.

The only Big 12 team that the Pac-10 managed to snag was Colorado, an accomplishment that commissioner Larry Scott should probably leave off his résumé. Sure, they get the Denver TV market, but what they don’t realize is that people in Denver care way more about the Broncos and shoveling their driveways than they do about college sports. (Meanwhile, for their jumping the gun and bolting to the Pac-10, Colorado will have to pay between $6 and $8 million to the Big 12, money that they don’t have to spend right now.) There’s also the possibility that the Pac-10 could get Utah away from the Mountain West. If they do, good for them. But with USC crippled by NCAA penalties, it’s gonna take more than a decent Utah team to salvage this mess of a conference.

Mountain West.

The Mountain West picked up Boise State, but if Utah heads to the Pac-10, they’re back to square one. Still, that’s not a bad place to be. Even without Utah, the MWC is on a path to BCS automatic qualification and is certainly gaining national recognition. They’ll be fine, regardless of what happens with the Utes.

Big Ten.

All this expansion nonsense started with the Big Ten, but after all the dust settles, their only net gain will be Nebraska. They now have enough teams to have a conference championship game, but little else changes. Oh, except now the other members have to share TV revenue with one more team. Boy, for a conference that prides themselves on academics, they sure don’t understand math very well.

SEC.

There was a lot of talk that the SEC would invite Texas A&M, but nobody could ever explain what the Aggies brought to the table. Instead, they’ll stick with the teams they have now, which is the smartest decision to come out of this entire process. The SEC is the most dominant conference in the nation, both in athletic success and TV deals. They don’t need to expand, and they knew that all along.

So there you have it. After months of rumors and speculation, theories about how the entire face of college sports was about to change overnight, the end result was a total of only 3 or 4 teams changing hands. That’s not to say there won’t be more changes next year, but for now, the status quo has largely been maintained.

Only with more money.

Previously:
Speculating on conference expansion rumors
Longhorns Inc.

I’ve largely stayed away from all the various NCAA conference expansion and/or realignment rumors floating around the interwebs the last few months because, well, they’re just rumors. One day you hear the Big Ten is going to steal the University of Texas away from the Big 12, the next you hear Texas is going to the SEC. One day the Big 12 is imploding, the next it’s expanding. Publicly, athletic directors declare their undying love for their conferences, but then they’re supposedly working vigorously in the shadows to broker a million other deals. And all the while, state legislators are trying to influence the process for their own particular benefit.

Is this college sports or As The World Turns?

The latest rumors have the Pac-10 asking Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, OU, Oklahoma State, and Colorado to be their new BFFs, thus elevating the Pac-10 to a 16-team superconference and completely decimating the Big 12. That would leave Baylor out in the cold, a result that doesn’t sit well with Waco’s state senator, David Sibley, who is apparently now fighting to have the Bears superglued to the other Texas teams. Meanwhile, the Big Ten, which has been rumored to be courting everyone from Texas to Nebraska to the North Dakota School for the Deaf, is supposedly focusing its efforts on Notre Dame. And Boise State, which was a lock for the Mountain West, is putting its plans on hold to see how everything else shakes out.

And of course, everything in the previous paragraph will be null and void by the time you finish reading this post.

Personally, I’m fine with the UT et. al heading to the Pac-10. I would prefer that to them going to the Big Ten or SEC; I just think it’s a better fit. What I would hate to see is Texas and A&M separated from Tech and OU. Those rivalries are just too good to relegate to non-conference status.

If the Pac-10 does expand to 16 (plus-or-minus Baylor or Colorado), the Big Ten and SEC would almost certainly follow suit, probably gobbling up Nebraska and/or Missouri or other Big East or ACC teams. The result would be three superconferences plus a handful of wannabes. Can you imagine how much griping about the BCS there’d be at that point? Yikes!

As far as Baylor is concerned, though, as I tweeted yesterday, I think they’d be better off in the Mountain West, where they’d face their old Southwest Conference rival TCU every year in addition to Utah and Air Force. Strictly looking at football (which is where all the money is, and let’s face it, that’s what’s driving all of this), the Bears have a much better chance at success in the Mountain West than they do anywhere else. They’ll never win a Big 12 championship, and they would certainly never have a chance in the Pac-16. Which is why I wish Sibley and his buddies in Austin would stay out of it. It was Austin politics that got Baylor into the Big 12 instead of TCU 16 years ago; we don’t need to repeat that same mistake this time around. (And understand, I’m not bashing Baylor. I like Baylor a lot, which is why I want to see them be successful.)

One thing’s for certain, though. Change is coming in college sports. With so much money at stake, it’s undeniable. It may be a complete shake-up, or it could just affect a handful of teams, but something is eventually gonna give. I just hope fans don’t get lost in the process.

Update, June 9:
Orangebloods.com is now reporting that Nebraska has unofficially accepted the invitation to the Big Ten, which pretty much guarantees the Big 12 South teams will bolt to the Pac-10. And yes, that will include Baylor and not Colorado. If UT has any say over the matter — and they absolutely do — there’s no way they would choose the Buffaloes over the Bears. First, Waco is just up the road from Austin (and conveniently directly between Austin and the Red River Rivalry game in Dallas). Second, there is a huge amount of history and tradition between the two SWC schools, something both Mack Brown and Darrell Royal highly value. And third, there’s always the political factor, which shouldn’t be ignored.

Of course, there’s always a chance UT could decide to keep the Big 12 intact, gambling on its attempt to form its own TV network. But I don’t think that’s gonna happen. There’s no loyalty in Texas (both the school and the state) to the Big 12 North, so there’s little incentive in Austin to keep this sinking ship afloat.

So where does that leave the other five Big 12 North teams? The most logical choice for Colorado would be the Mountain West, and probably for Kansas and K-State as well. If the MWC goes through with their plans to add Boise State, that would go a long way toward acceptance as an automatic qualifier for the BCS. Plus, Kansas and K-State both bring a lot to the table in basketball, so that would be a huge win for the MWC.

As for Missouri and Iowa State, they’re probably out of luck, at least in the short run. The Big Ten doesn’t seem interested in Mizzou any more, instead focusing on Notre Dame and then probably looking east to Rutgers and maybe Pitt. I suppose one or both teams could go to the Mountain West or Big East, but that’s probably the best case scenario.

Then that leaves the SEC. So far, they haven’t shown much interest in expanding, and really, they have no reason to from a financial standpoint. But with a 16-team Pac-10 and an expanding Big Ten, I think they’re gonna be forced to keep up whether they want to or not, at which point they’ll probably target teams such as Miami and Virginia Tech in the ACC.

It’ll most likely take a few years for all the dominoes to fall, but the momentum is definitely picking up!

Previously:
More March Madness is, well, madness
Legislating a playoff system isn’t the answer
The BCS: ‘Communistic’ or not?

Last year, I posted my picks to win the NCAA men’s tournament while admittedly not knowing enough about the teams to make even a reasonable guess. And of course, I completely blew it. (Thank you, Pitt.)

But I’m trying again this year, a little more educated and a lot more hopeful. OK, so I really don’t know how hopeful I am, but who knows, maybe I’ll get lucky.

Breaking it down by region:

Midwest. aka “The Group of Death.” The Midwest is tricky because there are a lot of wildcards, teams that are probably seeded too high (Ohio State), and others that are probably too low (Tennessee). I think the Buckeyes will make it past Oklahoma State, but the Vols will knock them off to make it to the Elite Eight. No. 1 Kansas should survive, though, and win the region.

East. As a huge Texas fan, I would love to pick the Horns here, but they’ve completely blown it this season. And a result, they have a horrible spot on the bracket. They can probably make it past Wake Forest, but they won’t survive Kentucky. As for most of the rest of the region, there will probably be a few upsets, but it’s still going to come down between the Wildcats and West Virginia. Look for Kentucky to go to the Final Four.

West. The West seems like a weird region to me, chock full of great teams, any of which could be spoilers but none of which strike me as national champions. Pitt let me down last year, and though they should make it to the Elite Eight, I’m not confident they can go any further. I’m calling an upset of No. 1 seed Syracuse by Vanderbilt, who’ll go on to win the region and make it the Final Four.

South. I’m really rooting for Baylor, and I think they can hold their own for a couple of games. But I think Villanova will probably beat them to face Duke in the Elite Eight. But I’m gonna have to play it safe and pick Duke to win the region.

Final Four. Will three of the four top-seeded teams make it to the Final Four? Yeah, that’s me hedging my bets to some degree. Last year, I predicted some bigger upsets and got burned pretty bad. The Jayhawks will beat Vandy, and Kentucky will hold out to beat Duke.

Championship. I’m not really a Kansas fan, but they’ve been one of the most consistent and dominant teams in college basketball all year. And even if I get my other Final Four picks wrong, I still think the Jayhawks can and will win the national title.

Here is my full bracket. Click to enlarge.

Previously:
March Madness: My picks
More March Madness is, well, madness

I wondered at the beginning of this year’s college football season how accurate EA Sports’ NCAA College Football 09 for the Wii was at predicting the outcomes of the real games. Each week, I played the game as the University of Texas versus their scheduled opponent for the week and then compared that score to the real score.

A few of the Wii scores were fairly close to the actual ones (Florida Atlantic, Rice, Texas A&M) while others were way off (Arkansas, Missouri, Baylor), margins of error probably not too different than what you’d get from ESPN and other “expert” prognosticators.

Which brings us to the final Texas game of the season, the Fiesta Bowl. It’s been yet another wacky season thanks to the BCS computers, biased voters, and controversial Big 12 tie-breaking rules. Heck, it even involved competing fleets of airplanes over Austin and Norman as the Red River rivals taunted each other by air.

But while Florida and OU are busy trying to justify why each of their 1-loss teams are more deserving of the National Championship than undefeated Utah, the Longhorns are happy to settle the score with the Ohio State Buckeyes. UT and OSU have met twice before, in 2005 and 2006. The Horns won the first with Vince Young on their way to a National Championship, then lost the second with Colt McCoy — that game only being Colt’s second game of his college career.

A lot has changed since 2006, however. Colt is now a Heisman runner-up, and the Horns are a dropped pass and missed tackle away from a perfect season. Ohio State, meanwhile, has two losses for the season, both to teams who squared off against each other in the Rose Bowl. Texas had one of the toughest schedules in the nation, while the highest ranked opponent beaten by Ohio State was No. 18 Wisconsin, and even that was only a 3-point victory. (It should also be noted that Wisconsin went on to get thumped by Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl.)

Now some might argue that a team’s regular season schedule isn’t always an indicator of how well they’ll do in the bowl game, and that’s true (just ask Alabama). So how well have Texas and Ohio State fared in recent bowls? Well, the Buckeyes have been to the National Championship game the last two years, but they lost both times. Texas, on the other hand, has won its last four consecutive bowl games, two of which have been against Big 10 teams.

And this year should make it number five, with Texas beating the Buckeyes 20 to 7, according to the Wii.

As always, I’ll update the blog after the game with the real score.

And as always, Hook ‘Em, Horns!

Real Score: 24-21.

Wow, what an incredible game! Frustrating, of course, for most of the game, but the final two minutes made up for it. It was very fitting that the final touchdown was made by Quan Cosby, who, like Vince Young, can say the final play of his college football career was a game-winning touchdown made in the final moments of a BCS game. Coupled with Brian Orakpo’s sack seconds later, you couldn’t have asked for a more fitting ending to the season.

The Longhorns finish the season 12-1, and while they likely won’t end up as national champions, they have nothing to feel bad about. Keep in mind that most people looked at their schedule this year and expected them to finish the regular season 9-3 or 8-4, maybe 10-2 if they were lucky. Yet, they were nearly flawless.

I just want to say I’ve had a lot of fun this season doing these prediction posts. If anything, it’s given me an excuse to play video games once a week. Maybe, I’ll do it again next season just for grins.

Of course, right now that seems like an eternity away.

Well, rooting for Tech against OU did absolutely nothing. I can’t say I’m surprised. Tech only plays well at home.

So here’s where we stand: Texas moved up to No. 2 in the BCS while OU is No. 3 by a razor-thin margin, with Tech dropping to No. 7. Texas has to beat A&M, period. That shouldn’t be hard this year since the Aggies are 4-7 for the year. And Tech will almost certainly beat Baylor. That leaves the OU-OSU game as the wildcard.

If OU wins, they’ll probably leapfrog UT in the BCS and will face Missouri for the Big 12 Championship. A win there would probably put them in the National Championship against the SEC Champion (either Alabama or Florida). Texas still ranks higher than Tech and would probably go to the Fiesta Bowl.

If OSU wins, Tech wins the Big 12 South tiebreaker and heads to Kansas City to play Mizzou for the Big 12 Championship. If the Red Raiders win there, they are guaranteed a BCS bowl, but it wouldn’t be the National Championship. Texas would move back up ahead of OU in the polls, and it’s very possible they could end up in the National Championship game.

So as long as the Horns beat A&M, they should be fine regardless of the outcome of the Bedlam game. But an OSU win would probably be more beneficial. Is it possible? Sure. Is it likely? I think it’s 50/50, but only because they’re playing in Stillwater, so the Cowboys will have the home field advantage.

Of course, all of this is ammunition for the anti-BCS crowd, and I kind of agree. How would it look for the Longhorns to be playing for a National Championship when they didn’t even win their own conference?

I’d like to find out.

Poor Baylor.

The 3-6 Bears have the unenviable task of visiting Austin this week to face the No. 4 Texas Longhorns a week after the Horns were upset by the still-unbeaten Texas Tech Red Raiders. No longer the masters of their own destiny, the Horns will most certainly be fired up to prove they’re still contenders for the Big 12 Championship and possibly the National Championship (not holding my breath). Thus, Baylor, ever the low man on the Big 12 totem pole, should be prepared to receive the brunt of UT’s frustrations.

Coach Briles, welcome to Waco.

According to NCAA Football 09 on the Wii, the score will be UT 80, Baylor 7. Ouch. (Let me tell you, by the third quarter, even I was ready for the game to be over with just to put the little electronic players out of their misery!)

Now, is an 80-7 score realistic? Probably not, especially considering Baylor lost to Missouri last week by only 3 points. Think about that for a second. Yes, it’s a loss — no surprise there — but it’s a loss to No. 14 Missouri by 3 points. Still, while a 73-point victory might be an exaggeration, don’t expect much of a nail-biter in Austin this week.

Of course, the Texas-Baylor game isn’t really the main event this weekend. No, all the eyes of Texas will be upon the Tech-Oklahoma State game, in hopes the Cowboys can do what Mack Brown & Co. failed to do last week: shut down Graham Harrell and the Red Raider offense.

Repeat after me: Go, Pokes!

And of course, Hook ‘Em, Horns!

Real Score: 45-21. As they did during the Missouri game, Baylor kept the score close, at least for part of the game. That says a lot for how far Baylor has come already under Art Briles. We’ll see if that improvement continues into the future. In the meantime, Texas hits the road again this week to take on the Kansas Jayhawks, a tougher team than Baylor for sure, but one that shouldn’t put too much scare into the Horns.