the tindog coffeehouse

I wondered at the beginning of this year’s college football season how accurate EA Sports’ NCAA College Football 09 for the Wii was at predicting the outcomes of the real games.  Each week, I played the game as the University of Texas versus their scheduled opponent for the week and then compared that score to the real score.

A few of the Wii scores were fairly close to the actual ones (Florida Atlantic, Rice, Texas A&M) while others were way off (Arkansas, Missouri, Baylor), margins of error probably not too different than what you’d get from ESPN and other “expert” prognosticators.

Which brings us to the final Texas game of the season, the Fiesta Bowl.  It’s been yet another wacky season thanks to the BCS computers, biased voters, and controversial Big 12 tie-breaking rules.  Heck, it even involved competing fleets of airplanes over Austin and Norman as the Red River rivals taunted each other by air.

But while Florida and OU are busy trying to justify why each of their 1-loss teams are more deserving of the National Championship than undefeated Utah, the Longhorns are happy to settle the score with the Ohio State Buckeyes.  UT and OSU have met twice before, in 2005 and 2006.  The Horns won the first with Vince Young on their way to a National Championship, then lost the second with Colt McCoy — that game only being Colt’s second game of his college career.

A lot has changed since 2006, however.  Colt is now a Heisman runner-up, and the Horns are a dropped pass and missed tackle away from a perfect season.  Ohio State, meanwhile, has two losses for the season, both to teams who squared off against each other in the Rose Bowl.  Texas had one of the toughest schedules in the nation, while the highest ranked opponent beaten by Ohio State was No. 18 Wisconsin, and even that was only a 3-point victory.  (It should also be noted that Wisconsin went on to get thumped by Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl.)

Now some might argue that a team’s regular season schedule isn’t always an indicator of how well they’ll do in the bowl game, and that’s true (just ask Alabama).  So how well have Texas and Ohio State fared in recent bowls?  Well, the Buckeyes have been to the National Championship game the last two years, but they lost both times.  Texas, on the other hand, has won its last four consecutive bowl games, two of which have been against Big 10 teams.

And this year should make it number five, with Texas beating the Buckeyes 20 to 7, according to the Wii.

As always, I’ll update the blog after the game with the real score.

And as always, Hook ‘Em, Horns!

Real Score: 24-21.

Wow, what an incredible game!  Frustrating, of course, for most of the game, but the final two minutes made up for it.  It was very fitting that the final touchdown was made by Quan Cosby, who, like Vince Young, can say the final play of his college football career was a game-winning touchdown made in the final moments of a BCS game.  Coupled with Brian Orakpo’s sack seconds later, you couldn’t have asked for a more fitting ending to the season.

The Longhorns finish the season 12-1, and while they likely won’t end up as national champions, they have nothing to feel bad about.  Keep in mind that most people looked at their schedule this year and expected them to finish the regular season 9-3 or 8-4, maybe 10-2 if they were lucky.  Yet, they were nearly flawless.

I just want to say I’ve had a lot of fun this season doing these prediction posts.  If anything, it’s given me an excuse to play video games once a week.  Maybe, I’ll do it again next season just for grins.

Of course, right now that seems like an eternity away.

Well, rooting for Tech against OU did absolutely nothing.  I can’t say I’m surprised.  Tech only plays well at home.

So here’s where we stand: Texas moved up to No. 2 in the BCS while OU is No. 3 by a razor-thin margin, with Tech dropping to No. 7.  Texas has to beat A&M, period.  That shouldn’t be hard this year since the Aggies are 4-7 for the year.  And Tech will almost certainly beat Baylor.  That leaves the OU-OSU game as the wildcard.

If OU wins, they’ll probably leapfrog UT in the BCS and will face Missouri for the Big 12 Championship.  A win there would probably put them in the National Championship against the SEC Champion (either Alabama or Florida).  Texas still ranks higher than Tech and would probably go to the Fiesta Bowl.

If OSU wins, Tech wins the Big 12 South tiebreaker and heads to Kansas City to play Mizzou for the Big 12 Championship.  If the Red Raiders win there, they are guaranteed a BCS bowl, but it wouldn’t be the National Championship.  Texas would move back up ahead of OU in the polls, and it’s very possible they could end up in the National Championship game.

So as long as the Horns beat A&M, they should be fine regardless of the outcome of the Bedlam game.  But an OSU win would probably be more beneficial.  Is it possible?  Sure.  Is it likely?  I think it’s 50/50, but only because they’re playing in Stillwater, so the Cowboys will have the home field advantage.

Of course, all of this is ammunition for the anti-BCS crowd, and I kind of agree.  How would it look for the Longhorns to be playing for a National Championship when they didn’t even win their own conference?

I’d like to find out.

Poor Baylor.

The 3-6 Bears have the unenviable task of visiting Austin this week to face the No. 4 Texas Longhorns a week after the Horns were upset by the still-unbeaten Texas Tech Red Raiders.  No longer the masters of their own destiny, the Horns will most certainly be fired up to prove they’re still contenders for the Big 12 Championship and possibly the National Championship (not holding my breath).  Thus, Baylor, ever the low man on the Big 12 totem pole, should be prepared to receive the brunt of UT’s frustrations.

Coach Briles, welcome to Waco.

According to NCAA Football 09 on the Wii, the score will be UT 80, Baylor 7.  Ouch.  (Let me tell you, by the third quarter, even I was ready for the game to be over with just to put the little electronic players out of their misery!)

Now, is an 80-7 score realistic?  Probably not, especially considering Baylor lost to Missouri last week by only 3 points.  Think about that for a second.  Yes, it’s a loss — no surprise there — but it’s a loss to No. 14 Missouri by 3 points.  Still, while a 73-point victory might be an exaggeration, don’t expect much of a nail-biter in Austin this week.

Of course, the Texas-Baylor game isn’t really the main event this weekend.  No, all the eyes of Texas will be upon the Tech-Oklahoma State game, in hopes the Cowboys can do what Mack Brown & Co. failed to do last week: shut down Graham Harrell and the Red Raider offense.

Repeat after me: Go, Pokes!

And of course, Hook ‘Em, Horns!

Real Score: 45-21.  As they did during the Missouri game, Baylor kept the score close, at least for part of the game.  That says a lot for how far Baylor has come already under Art Briles.  We’ll see if that improvement continues into the future.  In the meantime, Texas hits the road again this week to take on the Kansas Jayhawks, a tougher team than Baylor for sure, but one that shouldn’t put too much scare into the Horns.