the tindog coffeehouse

Good news, people of Waco. Baylor’s not screwed after all!

In what can only be explained as a miracle (by football-loving Baptists, at least), the Big 12 has been saved from destruction, with the ten remaining members swearing allegiance to Dan Beebe and the unnamed sports network (*cough*FoxSports*cough*) that bribed them to stay.

Who would’ve guessed that at the end of the day all of this realignment mess was really just about money? Huh.

So for now, there are no 16-team superconferences. No realignmentpocalypse. No ripping of the very fabric of the time-space continuum. Heck, not even a single punch thrown (unless you count Vince Young’s pummeling of an irate OU fan outside a Dallas strip club). In fact, Big 12 ADs would be singing “Kum Ba Yah” right now if it weren’t for the fact that they were too busy counting their enormous stacks of cash.

Where, then, does that leave us?

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I’ve largely stayed away from all the various NCAA conference expansion and/or realignment rumors floating around the interwebs the last few months because, well, they’re just rumors. One day you hear the Big Ten is going to steal the University of Texas away from the Big 12, the next you hear Texas is going to the SEC. One day the Big 12 is imploding, the next it’s expanding. Publicly, athletic directors declare their undying love for their conferences, but then they’re supposedly working vigorously in the shadows to broker a million other deals. And all the while, state legislators are trying to influence the process for their own particular benefit.

Is this college sports or As The World Turns?

The latest rumors have the Pac-10 asking Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, OU, Oklahoma State, and Colorado to be their new BFFs, thus elevating the Pac-10 to a 16-team superconference and completely decimating the Big 12. That would leave Baylor out in the cold, a result that doesn’t sit well with Waco’s state senator, David Sibley, who is apparently now fighting to have the Bears superglued to the other Texas teams. Meanwhile, the Big Ten, which has been rumored to be courting everyone from Texas to Nebraska to the North Dakota School for the Deaf, is supposedly focusing its efforts on Notre Dame. And Boise State, which was a lock for the Mountain West, is putting its plans on hold to see how everything else shakes out.

And of course, everything in the previous paragraph will be null and void by the time you finish reading this post.

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In the final moments of the Big 12 Championship game before kicker Hunter Lawrence kicked the game-winning field goal with 1 second left on the clock, Texas Longhorns wide receiver Jordan Shipley gave him a word of encouragement from Jeremiah 17:7: “Blessed is the man who trusts in the LORD, whose confidence is in him.”

A month later Lawrence returned the favor before the BCS National Championship game, giving Shipley a verse from 2 Corinthians 12:9: “‘My grace is sufficient for you, for my power is made perfect in weakness.’ Therefore I will boast all the more gladly about my weakness, so that Christ’s power may rest on me.”

Those words, ironically, seem to have even more meaning in the wake of the Longhorns’ disappointing loss to Alabama. But the final score is only part of the story.

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At the beginning of this year’s college football season, I looked ahead at the impending Texas Longhorns schedule and wrote that “it comes down to this: The Horns have to win. Period.”

Forget the National Championship. If the Horns want to win the Big 12 South, they have to win all three of those games [Tech, OU, and OSU]. Any misstep there, and the Big 12 tie-breaker rule that bit ‘em in the butt last year could do the same again.

Also, the schedule allows no room for error since the last four games will essentially be givens against weaker non-ranked (or lower-ranked) teams. In other words, if they fall early to OU or get tripped up in Stillwater, a blowout victory against Central Florida isn’t going to help them; there’s nowhere to go but down. …

The only way Texas can ensure they will end the regular season with a higher BCS ranking than OU is to go undefeated. And even if they do win the Big 12 with one loss, that single loss will probably be enough to keep them out of the National Championship. So it really comes down to winning every game, not just the biggest three. As Yoda says, “Do or do not… there is no try.”

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According to economists Michael Davis and Ewing Marion, the BCS is statistically fairer than a college football playoff system would be.

No, really.

They’ve invented a metric called the “Fairness Index”, which “measures the average ratio of the champion’s regular season record to its team with the best regular season record.” By their calculations, the much-maligned Bowl Championship Series, with its convoluted system of computer rankings, human polls, and exclusionary provisions, has a fairness index of 97.2%, while the NFL’s playoff system comes in at a mere 91.6%.

Their argument is this: With a playoff system you allow a certain number of teams into the brackets, which sounds fair on the surface but can result in a team with a lesser regular-season record winning out against a more deserving team. As an example, they point to the fact that the Arizona Cardinals, which had a regular-season record of 9-7, reached last year’s Super Bowl and almost beat the 12-4 Pittsburgh Steelers. According to Davis and Marion, had the Cardinals won, that outcome would’ve been less fair. Plus, they say, the more teams you allow into the playoffs, the more unfair the end results tend to be.

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First, a quick rant. Thanks to the Louisiana-Monroe game being on pay-per-view and the Wyoming game being on the Versus network (which was just dropped by DirecTV over a financial dispute), it looks like I’m going to miss the first two Texas football games of the season, which really blows. I mean, I’ve been jonesing since January for some college football, and now that it’s finally here, I’ve gotta wait two more weeks? Argh! It’s killing me!

OK, rant over. Deep breath. Serenity now! Ah, much better.

So last year I tried a season-long experiment in which I played NCAA College Football on the Wii every week, pitting the Longhorns against that week’s opponent to see if the video game score was any indication of the real score. The answer was that, well, no, it wasn’t too accurate. So while I had fun playing video games every week, I won’t be repeating the experiment this year. Sorry to disappoint you.

However, I did want to weigh in with my thoughts about the upcoming season. Basically, it comes down to this: The Horns have to win. Period.

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