Gizmodo has a post out about what Microsoft’s successor to Windows 7 will look like. Pretty much anyone you talk to will mention the same things: more cloud integration, better hardware management, better security, faster boot time, expanded use of virtualization, etc. All good answers, and I think accurate ones.

But my gut tells me that if you really want to know what Windows 8 will look like, just look at an iPad. Forget Windows XP, Vista, or even Windows 7. Windows 8 will more closely resemble Apple’s iOS or Google’s Chrome OS than any of its predecessors.

Why? Several reasons:

The desktop is dead.

OK, the traditional desktop PC isn’t dead; far from it. But the shift over the last few years has been away from desktops and laptops and toward smartphones, tablets, netbooks, and other Internet-connected devices (HDTVs, game consoles, etc.). As a result, what we traditionally refer to as an operating system has shifted. It’s no longer about the machine; it’s about the apps. It’s about the data, or more specifically accessing that data anywhere from any device. The OS is no longer the focus, it’s now just the shell. A traditional Windows OS doesn’t fit this model; iOS does.

Microsoft has a history of playing catch-up.

I’m no Apple fanboy, but let’s face it, Microsoft has always lagged behind when it comes to innovation. Windows, Internet Explorer, smartphones, media players. In each case, Microsoft has had success, sometimes even dominating the industry. But that doesn’t mean they have the best or most innovative products. While IE may still own the majority of the browser market, other web browsers such as Firefox, Chrome, and Opera have led in terms of performance, web standards, and innovation. Microsoft recently released an overhauled smartphone platform, but it’s still not as mature or robust as those from Apple, Google, or RIM, all of whom have platforms that are light-years ahead of Windows Phone 7.

The same trend can be seen with Windows, which has historically included features in new versions that the Mac OS had in previous ones. Translucent windows and User Account Control were introduced in Vista in 2007, but similar features existed in OS X as late as 2005. Microsoft overhauled the taskbar in Windows 7 in 2009, but the goal was to make it behave more like OS X’s dock, which was first introduced in 2001. Over the years, Windows and OS X have become much more alike than different, and since iOS is affecting how OS X looks and behaves (for example, the recently announced Mac App Store), one would expect Microsoft to eventually follow suit (which apparently, is already in the works).

Windows Phone 7 may succeed.

The success of the iPhone prompted Apple to replicate its OS for the iPod, iPad, and Apple TV, and features such as the App Store will make it to OS X. And the success of Chrome and the Android smartphone OS led Google to port Android to tablets and create the Chrome OS for netbooks.

Windows Phone 7′s “Metro” interface, meanwhile, took its inspiration from the Zune. If Microsoft’s new Phone platform is even marginally successful, expect Metro to seriously influence the look and feel of Windows 8.

Steve Ballmer is no Bill Gates.

This one is obvious. Steve Ballmer will never come close to rivaling Bill Gates, either in terms of innovation or commercial success. Microsoft dominated in the ’90s largely because of Gates’ vision and leadership. In contrast, since becoming CEO in 2000, Ballmer has kept Microsoft profitable, but that’s about it. Even with successes such as XP, the Xbox, and Bing, Microsoft has lost ground to Apple, Google, Mozilla, Nintendo, and others. Somehow I just don’t have confidence that under Ballmer’s leadership, Microsoft will ever truly be revolutionary. If iOS and Chrome are forging ahead, expect Ballmer to follow blindly in their footsteps.

To be clear, I don’t necessarily expect Windows 8 to look or even behave exactly like Apple’s iOS. But I predict it will borrow heavily from its ideology: the concept of a stripped-down OS that is app-driven and web-integrated. Of course, knowing Microsoft, I could be completely wrong.

Previously:
‘Innovation at scale’ proves just how out of touch Microsoft is
The biggest mistake Microsoft made with Windows 7
Is this what ‘Microsoft mojo’ looks like?

1. Add an option for different sound profiles. Every other cell phone and smartphone on the planet has this option, but not the Jesus Phone. I want the ringtone to be louder when I’m in the car but quieter when I’m in the office. Or maybe turn the ringer off but have the message tones still on. Is there an easy way to change that? Nope. You can go to Settings and adjust the volume slider, but there’s no way to assign these settings to different profiles. And as far as I can tell, there’s not an app for that.
2. Add a native To-Do app. I can plug my iPhone in to my computer and sync the Calendar, Contacts, and Notes with Outlook, but for whatever reason, the iPhone doesn’t have an app for my Tasks. Apparently Steve Jobs assumes Apple fanboys don’t do anything, but really this seems like a really dumb omission. Yes, there are third-party apps to get around this limitation, but why can’t Apple just include one natively?
3. Improve the Mail app. The included Mail app meets most of my needs; after all, it’s not necessarily meant to replace my desktop email client. But it could be better. For one, allow email attachments. OK, it allows for inline attachments, but that could definitely be better. Also, allow email distribution lists. What if I want to send the same email to a list of 10 different people? That requires 10 different emails. Er, no thanks.
4. Fix the photo rotation bugs. You take a picture while holding the phone in landscape mode (horizontal). You then turn the phone back upright to portrait mode. Does the photo rotate with it? Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn’t. Without a third-party app to edit it, your only option is to sync the photo to your computer, edit it there, and then sync it back. What a pain.
5. Improve the battery life. Of course, no list of iPhone gripes would be complete with a rant about the so-so battery life. Supposedly the 3GS has a much-improved battery life over its predecessor, but it’s still not great. Of course, when you realize the iPhone is more computer than phone, it’s easy to see how the battery would be a problem.
6. Allow for MMS messaging. OK, this is more of an AT&T issue, and they keep promising us it will be available eventually. And actually, it’s not even really that big of a deal to me. But it’s just another glaring omission that makes you wonder.
7. Make the case less slippery. Apple is all about aesthetics, so banish the thought of changing the design to be more practical. Sure, the high gloss case is purty, but as your fingerprints accumulate on it, it does tend to get a little slippery. And no, AppleCare doesn’t cover damage from dropping the thing. Good thing I haven’t dropped it yet then.
8. Use a standard charger connection. An iPhone with a mini-USB or micro-USB charger connection? Ridiculous! No, only proprietary connectors allowed here. Heaven forbid we should be able to use the same charger from our BlackBerry with our iPhone! I guess Steve doesn’t want it getting BlackBerry cooties.
9. Allow for a user-replaceable battery. I haven’t run into any battery issues so far, but you know it’s inevitable. Again, with any other device, I could order a new battery online and swap it out in 30 seconds. With the iPhone? Nope, send the whole thing in. Hope you spent the extra $69 for AppleCare coverage!
10. Add a MicroSD slot for additional storage. I bought a 16 GB 3GS and probably won’t be putting any music or videos on it, so I should have plenty of storage. But it would still be nice to be able to throw a MicroSD card in there for extra room just in case. Oh, well.
11. Allow for third-party web browsers. Safari mobile is fine for casual mobile web browsing. As mobile browsers go, it’s really pretty good. But like so many other Apple products, it exists in a closed ecosystem. Have an interest in Mozilla’s Fennec browser, Opera Mini, or Skyfire? Well, too bad. Because for the next two years you’ll be using Safari. And you’ll like it that way.
12. Improve AT&T’s network. Again, this isn’t really an iPhone issue. But since the iPhone is the flagship of AT&T Wireless, the least they could do is provide a better network. You know, one that actually lives up to their claims? Personally, the coverage has been acceptable (not great, but good enough) with one major exception: the deadspot in my home in exactly the same place as my home office. Really. In my living room, I can get 3G service and make and receive calls all day long. I sit down at my desk 30 feet away: No Service. Seriously? And no, it’s not the iPhone; my previous AT&T cell phone had the same issue.
13. Make it cheaper. The iPhone is by far the most expensive phone I’ve ever had. $200 for the phone with a 2-year contract, $30 a month for data, and $5 a month for 200 text messages. Then you still have to buy a (proprietary) car charger and any other travel chargers you want. Plus, you’ll probably want some kind of case, screen protector, and external battery. (I opted to buy a Mophie Juice Pack Air even though it was quite pricey.) And then there are the apps. Sure, there are a lot of free apps out there, but many of them aren’t. So in some cases, you’ll have to open your wallet to get the exact app you need.

Again, like so many iPhone owners, I really do like the thing and wouldn’t trade it for a BlackBerry or Android phone any day of the week. But as with any other gadget, it’s definitely not perfect.

Anything on this list I’ve forgotten?

Previously:
OK, so I got an iPhone. So what?
‘How Apple Plays Upon Our Insecurities’

So if I didn’t get an iPhone to be cool, then why did I get it? Well, first because I didn’t want to leave AT&T. Now don’t get me wrong, I don’t particularly like AT&T. But my wife is on it, as are most of our friends and family, so it just makes sense. Plus, the rollover minutes provide an extra margin of error just in case we find someone who’s on a different carrier.

Second, the iPhone just meets my needs better than most other phones out there. That’s not to say BlackBerrys and the rest are bad, they’re just not what I’m looking for right now. I have a company-issued BlackBerry for work, and it’s great for email and messaging. But web-browsing on a BlackBerry isn’t as good, nor are apps for Facebook, Twitter, and the like. And at the end of the day, that’s what made the difference for me.

So, there you go. Another satisfied Apple fanboy-in-training (despite the impending “iPhoneocalypse“).

Previously:
‘How Apple Plays Upon Our Insecurities’
Giving in to Google