the tindog coffeehouse

At the beginning of this year’s college football season, I looked ahead at the impending Texas Longhorns schedule and wrote that “it comes down to this: The Horns have to win.  Period.”

Forget the National Championship.  If the Horns want to win the Big 12 South, they have to win all three of those games [Tech, OU, and OSU].  Any misstep there, and the Big 12 tie-breaker rule that bit ‘em in the butt last year could do the same again.

Also, the schedule allows no room for error since the last four games will essentially be givens against weaker non-ranked (or lower-ranked) teams.  In other words, if they fall early to OU or get tripped up in Stillwater, a blowout victory against Central Florida isn’t going to help them; there’s nowhere to go but down. …

The only way Texas can ensure they will end the regular season with a higher BCS ranking than OU is to go undefeated.  And even if they do win the Big 12 with one loss, that single loss will probably be enough to keep them out of the National Championship.  So it really comes down to winning every game, not just the biggest three.  As Yoda says, “Do or do not… there is no try.”

Well, thanks to the Brigham Young defense, which took Sam Bradford out of commission in Game 1, OU was never a huge threat to overtake the Horns in the polls.  And who would’ve guessed the most difficult regular season game would come against the Aggies, a team which barely squeaked into bowl eligibility with a whopping six wins all year?  Unbelievable.

But Texas did win.  Against OU, against A&M, and miraculously against Nebraska to claim the Big 12 Championship.  Now we’ll see if they can win a National Championship against Alabama, a team which is certainly as dangerous as the Horns and at least as inconsistent.

Of course, Colt McCoy and the Longhorns weren’t the only success story this year.  The TCU Horned Frogs also ended the season undefeated and will be facing off against Boise State in their very first BCS bowl.

As a fan of both Texas and TCU, this has been the most exciting college football season I can remember.  In fact, I think for most of the season I was more excited for the Frogs than I was for the Horns.

I know a lot of TCU fans aren’t happy with the outcome, though.  They’ve hoped for a shot at the National Championship all season, and thanks to Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh and Texas’ poor clock management in the final minute of the Big 12 game, they almost got their wish.  Nevertheless, many have said TCU should face off against Florida, Cincinnati, or another BCS team instead of Boise State in order to prove they can run with the big dogs.  I don’t think they have anything to prove.

TCU is a 12-0 team who beat a lot of really good opponents (many on the road) and finished the season ranked 3rd in the polls and 4th in the BCS.  And they’re one of only eight teams playing in a BCS bowl game.  They’ve proved themselves enough as far as I’m concerned.

Besides, Boise State (who is also undefeated) isn’t an easy team to beat.  Just ask OU, who lost to them in the Fiesta Bowl two years ago.  The Broncos will also be looking for payback since losing to the Frogs last year in the Poinsettia Bowl (and seriously, when was the last time the Poinsettia Bowl came up during a discussion of the BCS?).

The regular season is over, and the good guys won.  Now, bring on the bowl games!

Hook ‘Em Horns and Go Frogs!

Previously:
For Longhorns, 2009 is all or nothing

Fort Myers, Florida, columnist and self-identified Lutheran Sam Cook has taken Gators quarterback Tim Tebow to task for openly displaying his Christian faith on and off the field:

Religion – except for the “Hail Mary” pass – has no place in sports.

In Tebow’s case, he should play football and forget about us sinners for 31/2 hours every Saturday.

Somehow, we’ll survive without him displaying a “John 3:16″ Bible verse under his eyes. We separate church and state. Why not church and sports?

Actually, I think we need more athletes like Tebow and Texas quarterback Colt McCoy and OU quarterback Sam Bradford: men and women who not only live out their faith off the field and out of the spotlight but who display it in the public eye as well.

Listen, I’m not a big Florida fan, and the Tebow hype is beyond ridiculous.  But greatly I admire him for standing up for what he believes, even if it’s not always the popular thing to do.

Previously:
What number are you?

First, a quick rant.  Thanks to the Louisiana-Monroe game being on pay-per-view and the Wyoming game being on the Versus network (which was just dropped by DirecTV over a financial dispute), it looks like I’m going to miss the first two Texas football games of the season, which really blows.  I mean, I’ve been jonesing since January for some college football, and now that it’s finally here, I’ve gotta wait two more weeks?  Argh!  It’s killing me!

OK, rant over.  Deep breath.  Serenity now!  Ah, much better.

So last year I tried a season-long experiment in which I played NCAA College Football on the Wii every week, pitting the Longhorns against that week’s opponent to see if the video game score was any indication of the real score.  The answer was that, well, no, it wasn’t too accurate.  So while I had fun playing video games every week, I won’t be repeating the experiment this year.  Sorry to disappoint you.

However, I did want to weigh in with my thoughts about the upcoming season.  Basically, it comes down to this: The Horns have to win.  Period.

Here’s their schedule:

• 9/5: Louisiana-Monroe
• 9/12: at Wyoming
• 9/19: Texas Tech
• 9/26: UT El Paso
• 10/10: Colorado
• 10/17: OU
• 10/24: at Mizzou
• 10/31: at Oklahoma State
• 11/7: Central Florida
• 11/14: at Baylor
• 11/21: Kansas
• 11/26: at Texas A&M

Of those games, the big three are Tech, OU, and OSU.  Forget the National Championship.  If the Horns want to win the Big 12 South, they have to win all three of those games.  Any misstep there, and the Big 12 tie-breaker rule that bit ‘em in the butt last year could do the same again.

Also, the schedule allows no room for error since the last four games will essentially be givens against weaker non-ranked (or lower-ranked) teams.  In other words, if they fall early to OU or get tripped up in Stillwater, a blowout victory against Central Florida isn’t going to help them; there’s nowhere to go but down.

Contrast this with OU’s schedule:

• 9/5: BYU
• 9/12: Idaho State
• 9/19: Tulsa
• 10/3: at Miami
• 10/17: Texas
• 10/24: at Kansas
• 10/31: Kansas State
• 11/7: at Nebraska
• 11/14: Texas A&M
• 11/21: at Texas Tech
• 11/28: Oklahoma State

Not only does OU play tougher non-conference games, they play tough, high-ranked opponents late in the season.  So even if OU falls to Texas at the Cotton Bowl, they have a chance to at least partially redeem themselves over time.

The only way Texas can ensure they will end the regular season with a higher BCS ranking than OU is to go undefeated.  And even if they do win the Big 12 with one loss, that single loss will probably be enough to keep them out of the National Championship.  So it really comes down to winning every game, not just the biggest three.  As Yoda says, “Do or do not… there is no try.”

Now the big question: Can they do it?  In my opinion, yes.  They have all the right ingredients to go all the way, just as they did in 2005.

It should be an exciting year for Longhorn fans.  Even if we won’t be able to witness all of it.

Hook ‘Em Horns!

The cover of the September issue of Texas Monthly proclaims of Texas Tech coach Mike Leach: “This crazy pirate may be the best college football coach in the country.”  They got the “crazy” part right, but I definitely wouldn’t say he’s the best coach in the country.

Granted, he’s very good at what he does, and he deserves a certain amount of recognition for that.  If nothing else, his ability to recruit virtually unknown players and turn them into one of the most dominant passing offenses in the nation is worthy of admiration.

But NCAA records are one thing; results are quite another.  At some point, those billions of passing yards have to translate to meaningful wins, and that’s where Leach has so far come up short.  Sure, they beat Texas last year in what was arguably one of the biggest games in the country, but at the end of the season, all they had to show for it was a shared Big 12 South title and a loss to Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl.  In fact, in the nine seasons Leach has coached at Tech, they’ve never outright won the Big 12 South division or played in a BCS bowl game.

So how does that qualify him as “the best college football coach in the country”?  The fact is, it doesn’t.

But if Leach isn’t the best, then who is?

Well, of course that’s pretty subjective, but popular choices among the experts include:

• Urban Meyer, Florida
• Nick Saban, Alabama
• Pete Carroll, USC
• Bob Stoops, OU
• Mack Brown, Texas
• Jim Tressel, Ohio State
• Les Miles, LSU

There are others, of course, but you’d be hard-pressed to find Leach’s name anywhere on the list.

I’m sure the Pirate of the Panhandle is just fine with that.  He certainly isn’t worried about anyone’s opinion of him, that’s pretty obvious.  But to earn the hyperbole bestowed upon him by the Texas Monthly editors, he’ll have to do more than just beat Texas at home; he’ll have to win national championships.

A lot of them.

Previously:
At least he’ll always have his spiffy visor
Longhorns should root for Tech and Bama to win out

I normally don’t follow college basketball; there are just too many games.  But I do tend to get caught up in March Madness.  Not to the point of bringing a TV and rabbit ears to work like a former co-worker of mine used to do every year, but I do enjoy watching games when I can.

That said, here are my pics for the men’s tournament.  Yes, most of them are safe bets while a few are probably long shots.  (Predicted winner in parentheses)  Discuss.

Sweet 16.
Pitt vs. Florida State (Pitt)
Duke vs. Villanova (Villanova)
Louisville vs. Wake Forest (Louisville)
Kansas vs. Michigan State (Kansas)
LSU vs. Gonzaga (LSU)
OU vs. Syracuse (OU)
UConn vs. Purdue (UConn)
Missouri vs. Memphis (Memphis)

Elite 8.
Pitt vs. Villanova (Pitt)
Louisville vs. Kansas (Kansas)
LSU vs. OU (LSU)
UConn vs. Memphis (UConn)

Final Four.
Pitt vs. LSU (Pitt)
Kansas vs. UConn (UConn)

Championship.
Pitt vs. UConn (Pitt)

There you go.  Let the madness begin.

What a sweet, sweet ending to the 2008 college football season.  After a first half marred by interceptions, penalties, and defective play clocks, the Florida Gators emerged victorious over the Oklahoma Sooners in the BCS National Championship game last night.  For the Sooners, it’s their fifth straight BCS bowl game loss and their third national championship loss under head coach “Big Game Bob” Stoops and his dandy white visor.

OU’s loss dropped them to No. 6 in the final AP poll behind No. 5 Texas and proved beyond the shadow of a doubt that the Gators were playing the wrong Big 12 team for the national title.

While the BCS system is still broken and will likely remain that way for the foreseeable future, however, at least undefeated Utah ended up in the No. 2 spot in the AP poll (although they still finished behind USC and Texas in the USA Today poll).  I guess that’s as close to justice as anyone can expect in this day and age.

So now officially the season is done and the long drought begins before the next collegiate kickoff.  Thanks to a returning Colt McCoy, Jordan Shipley, and a host of extraordinarily talented younger players, Texas is well-positioned to make another run for the championship in 2009.

I can’t wait.

I wondered at the beginning of this year’s college football season how accurate EA Sports’ NCAA College Football 09 for the Wii was at predicting the outcomes of the real games.  Each week, I played the game as the University of Texas versus their scheduled opponent for the week and then compared that score to the real score.

A few of the Wii scores were fairly close to the actual ones (Florida Atlantic, Rice, Texas A&M) while others were way off (Arkansas, Missouri, Baylor), margins of error probably not too different than what you’d get from ESPN and other “expert” prognosticators.

Which brings us to the final Texas game of the season, the Fiesta Bowl.  It’s been yet another wacky season thanks to the BCS computers, biased voters, and controversial Big 12 tie-breaking rules.  Heck, it even involved competing fleets of airplanes over Austin and Norman as the Red River rivals taunted each other by air.

But while Florida and OU are busy trying to justify why each of their 1-loss teams are more deserving of the National Championship than undefeated Utah, the Longhorns are happy to settle the score with the Ohio State Buckeyes.  UT and OSU have met twice before, in 2005 and 2006.  The Horns won the first with Vince Young on their way to a National Championship, then lost the second with Colt McCoy — that game only being Colt’s second game of his college career.

A lot has changed since 2006, however.  Colt is now a Heisman runner-up, and the Horns are a dropped pass and missed tackle away from a perfect season.  Ohio State, meanwhile, has two losses for the season, both to teams who squared off against each other in the Rose Bowl.  Texas had one of the toughest schedules in the nation, while the highest ranked opponent beaten by Ohio State was No. 18 Wisconsin, and even that was only a 3-point victory.  (It should also be noted that Wisconsin went on to get thumped by Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl.)

Now some might argue that a team’s regular season schedule isn’t always an indicator of how well they’ll do in the bowl game, and that’s true (just ask Alabama).  So how well have Texas and Ohio State fared in recent bowls?  Well, the Buckeyes have been to the National Championship game the last two years, but they lost both times.  Texas, on the other hand, has won its last four consecutive bowl games, two of which have been against Big 10 teams.

And this year should make it number five, with Texas beating the Buckeyes 20 to 7, according to the Wii.

As always, I’ll update the blog after the game with the real score.

And as always, Hook ‘Em, Horns!

Real Score: 24-21.

Wow, what an incredible game!  Frustrating, of course, for most of the game, but the final two minutes made up for it.  It was very fitting that the final touchdown was made by Quan Cosby, who, like Vince Young, can say the final play of his college football career was a game-winning touchdown made in the final moments of a BCS game.  Coupled with Brian Orakpo’s sack seconds later, you couldn’t have asked for a more fitting ending to the season.

The Longhorns finish the season 12-1, and while they likely won’t end up as national champions, they have nothing to feel bad about.  Keep in mind that most people looked at their schedule this year and expected them to finish the regular season 9-3 or 8-4, maybe 10-2 if they were lucky.  Yet, they were nearly flawless.

I just want to say I’ve had a lot of fun this season doing these prediction posts.  If anything, it’s given me an excuse to play video games once a week.  Maybe, I’ll do it again next season just for grins.

Of course, right now that seems like an eternity away.

Texas coach Mack Brown wasn’t happy.  Because of an odd tiebreaker rule in the Big 12 Conference, OU will play Missouri for the Big 12 Championship with a shot at the National Title game should they beat the Tigers.  The Longhorns, meanwhile, finish behind OU even though the Sooners lost to the Horns in October and will likely end up in the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State.

That, apparently, isn’t a good enough consolation prize for Mack:

I’m really disappointed for our kids that two teams we beat this season will be playing for the Big 12 Championship. I’ll try to explain it to them, but most importantly, my message will be that you’ve done enough to put yourself in position to play for the conference championship, you had a great season and there still is a lot out there for you to play for. …

Since this situation has never happened before in the Big 12, I think the conference should follow the lead of all of the other BCS leagues with championship games (ACC/Conference USA/Mid-American/SEC) in how they settle three-way ties. I think their systems are fairer and give more credit to how the two highest ranked teams performed against each other on the field.

I have to wonder, though: Would Mack and all the other angry Longhorn fans feel the same way if they had come out on top?

It seems like this same argument comes up every year about how flawed the BCS system is and why a playoff system is necessary.  Maybe it is flawed, and maybe playoffs would be a better alternative.  But so what?

Anyone who thinks for a minute that the BCS is about determining the best college football team in the country is kidding themselves.  If it were, then why would a 9-3 Missouri team ranked No. 20 have more of a shot at a BCS bowl than undefeated Boise State who’s ranked No. 9?  Why would a 3-loss Boston College team ranked No. 17 have a shot when 1-loss Texas Tech (No. 7) will probably have to settle for the Cotton Bowl?

No, the BCS is about making money.  That’s it.  That’s why some conferences such as the Big 12 and SEC get automatic berths while others, such as the Mountain West, do not.

Hey, Frito-Lay paid good money to put their Tostitos brand on the Fiesta Bowl.  They expect to get their money’s worth.  FedEx has a vested interest in how many viewers tune in for the Orange Bowl.  The cities that host the BCS bowls (Glendale, New Orleans, Pasadena, and Miami Gardens), have a vested interest in how many tickets they can sell and how much money the spectators spend while they’re there.

Teams also have a vested interest.  Just for playing in a BCS bowl, a school stands to earn about $17.5 million, and many coaches’ contracts provide for extra bonuses for making to and winning a BCS bowl.

Meanwhile, non-BCS bowls, because they’re not as lucrative, end up getting a bad rap.  From Texas Monthly:

Last season, teams that would have otherwise accepted invitations to the Cotton (SEC runner-up Georgia) and the blue-turf Humanitarian (WAC champ Hawaii) earned a lucrative promotion to the Sugar Bowl. As part of the resulting lineup shuffle, 6-6 Alabama played 6-6 Colorado in the “Who Cares?” Independence Bowl—except that the Crimson Tide’s 30-24 win over the Buffs made for better viewing than the Bulldogs’ 41-10 blowout of the Warriors. One year before that, the Fiesta Bowl gave us Oklahoma-Boise State, an all-time classic. But that same season the Sun (Oregon State beat Missouri 39-38 by going for 2 points at the end of the fourth quarter) and the Alamo (Texas overcame a 14-0 hole to hold off Iowa 26-24) bowls were just as entertaining.

Do Texas fans have a legitimate argument that they deserve to be ranked higher than OU based on the head-to-head matchup?  Sure.  But it didn’t work out that way.  Not this year.

Instead, Texas ended up ranked No. 3 in the nation at the end of the regular season with only a single loss (which came in the final seconds of the game).  Their quarterback broke a string of school records and is a finalist for the Heisman.  They beat both OU and A&M.  And they will likely play in a BCS bowl against Ohio State (a game I, for one, am looking forward to).  They even still have a slight (albeit unlikely) chance at playing for the National Title if OU loses to Missouri.

So tell me, how is it that Mack Brown is disappointed?

The BCS isn’t fair sometimes, just like life isn’t fair.  But as long as the money keeps rolling in, that’s the system we have to deal with in college football.

Like it or not.

Well, rooting for Tech against OU did absolutely nothing.  I can’t say I’m surprised.  Tech only plays well at home.

So here’s where we stand: Texas moved up to No. 2 in the BCS while OU is No. 3 by a razor-thin margin, with Tech dropping to No. 7.  Texas has to beat A&M, period.  That shouldn’t be hard this year since the Aggies are 4-7 for the year.  And Tech will almost certainly beat Baylor.  That leaves the OU-OSU game as the wildcard.

If OU wins, they’ll probably leapfrog UT in the BCS and will face Missouri for the Big 12 Championship.  A win there would probably put them in the National Championship against the SEC Champion (either Alabama or Florida).  Texas still ranks higher than Tech and would probably go to the Fiesta Bowl.

If OSU wins, Tech wins the Big 12 South tiebreaker and heads to Kansas City to play Mizzou for the Big 12 Championship.  If the Red Raiders win there, they are guaranteed a BCS bowl, but it wouldn’t be the National Championship.  Texas would move back up ahead of OU in the polls, and it’s very possible they could end up in the National Championship game.

So as long as the Horns beat A&M, they should be fine regardless of the outcome of the Bedlam game.  But an OSU win would probably be more beneficial.  Is it possible?  Sure.  Is it likely?  I think it’s 50/50, but only because they’re playing in Stillwater, so the Cowboys will have the home field advantage.

Of course, all of this is ammunition for the anti-BCS crowd, and I kind of agree.  How would it look for the Longhorns to be playing for a National Championship when they didn’t even win their own conference?

I’d like to find out.

The BCS makes for strange bedfellows.  Had the Texas Longhorns beaten Texas Tech on November 1st, they would still be the undisputed No. 1 team in the country, or possibly a very close 2nd.  As it is, Burnt Orange Nation will spend the bye-week nervously watching what happens in Norman between No. 2 Tech and No. 5 OU.

Should OU win and then beat Oklahoma State on the 29th, there would be a three-way tie in the Big 12 South between OU, Tech, and Texas, with the winner decided by the BCS results.  Consequently, there is a slight possibility Texas could come out on top (probably thanks to the BCS computers), and then a Big 12 victory over Missouri would then give them a very good shot at the National Championship.

On the other hand, in a three-way tie Texas could end up in third place in the Big 12 with an invitation to the Holiday Bowl.  (Although apparently it is possible all three teams could end up in BCS bowls — if the rules are bent.)

It’s that latter scenario that has me rooting for the Red Raiders this week and for Alabama in the SEC Championship on December 6th.  Bama and Tech are both undefeated and ranked first and second in the country, respectively.  By beating OU, Tech not only locks in their spot in the Big 12 title game but also guarantees that a 2-loss OU team can’t leapfrog 1-loss Texas.  Plus, the Horns’ single loss looks a lot less painful because it will have been to a top-rated undefeated team.  Barring an embarrassing loss to Mizzou by Tech, the Horns are pretty much a lock for the Fiesta Bowl — a much better ending to the season than the Holiday Bowl.

So why root for the Crimson Tide?  Because a lot of voters are anxious to move Florida up in the polls, and a stronger Florida (which is currently No. 4 in the BCS) is a direct threat to Texas (which is No. 3), regardless of how the Big 12 shakes out.

So, no, I won’t be rooting for OU tomorrow.  Let Tech and Bama fight it out for the National Championship.  It’s a lot safer for Texas than hoping for a mathmatical miracle.

Time again for the annual Red River Rivalry between the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners–either the greatest game of the year or the worst, depending on the final score.

Both teams come to the Cotton Bowl undefeated, ranked in the top 5, and led by two of the best quarterbacks currently in the NCAA.  With National Championship implications, this is an even bigger game than usual (a “battle royale”, as the Austin American-Statesman refers to it).

But while most sports pundits are predicting an OU win, the Wii (courtesy of NCAA Football 09) is calling it for the Horns, 20-10.

One interesting sidenote: In the game, the logo on the field still reads “SBC Red River Shootout”.  The last time the game was called that was in 2004.  That year, OU won 12-0 and went on to play (and lose to) USC for the National Championship.  The game was the Longhorns’ only loss of the season, however, and they went on to play (and beat) Michigan in the Rose Bowl.

So even if the Wii is wrong (banish the thought), there still is hope.  And heck, at least it’s not the stock market!

Hook ‘Em, Horns!

Real Score: 45-35.  OK, so the actual score was a lot higher than the prediction, but it was still a 10-point difference, so that counts for something, right?  And by the way, everyone calling this game an “upset” is flat wrong.  “Upset” implies that UT was way overmatched but they won anyway, and that clearly wasn’t the case.

But enough gloating.  The biggest battle may be won, but we’ve got a lot of football still ahead, including Missouri next week.  The Tigers don’t look as fierce after losing at home to Oklahoma State, but they’re still a powerful team, and the Texas defense will have to stay sharp.