the tindog coffeehouse

At the beginning of this year’s college football season, I looked ahead at the impending Texas Longhorns schedule and wrote that “it comes down to this: The Horns have to win.  Period.”

Forget the National Championship.  If the Horns want to win the Big 12 South, they have to win all three of those games [Tech, OU, and OSU].  Any misstep there, and the Big 12 tie-breaker rule that bit ‘em in the butt last year could do the same again.

Also, the schedule allows no room for error since the last four games will essentially be givens against weaker non-ranked (or lower-ranked) teams.  In other words, if they fall early to OU or get tripped up in Stillwater, a blowout victory against Central Florida isn’t going to help them; there’s nowhere to go but down. …

The only way Texas can ensure they will end the regular season with a higher BCS ranking than OU is to go undefeated.  And even if they do win the Big 12 with one loss, that single loss will probably be enough to keep them out of the National Championship.  So it really comes down to winning every game, not just the biggest three.  As Yoda says, “Do or do not… there is no try.”

Well, thanks to the Brigham Young defense, which took Sam Bradford out of commission in Game 1, OU was never a huge threat to overtake the Horns in the polls.  And who would’ve guessed the most difficult regular season game would come against the Aggies, a team which barely squeaked into bowl eligibility with a whopping six wins all year?  Unbelievable.

But Texas did win.  Against OU, against A&M, and miraculously against Nebraska to claim the Big 12 Championship.  Now we’ll see if they can win a National Championship against Alabama, a team which is certainly as dangerous as the Horns and at least as inconsistent.

Of course, Colt McCoy and the Longhorns weren’t the only success story this year.  The TCU Horned Frogs also ended the season undefeated and will be facing off against Boise State in their very first BCS bowl.

As a fan of both Texas and TCU, this has been the most exciting college football season I can remember.  In fact, I think for most of the season I was more excited for the Frogs than I was for the Horns.

I know a lot of TCU fans aren’t happy with the outcome, though.  They’ve hoped for a shot at the National Championship all season, and thanks to Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh and Texas’ poor clock management in the final minute of the Big 12 game, they almost got their wish.  Nevertheless, many have said TCU should face off against Florida, Cincinnati, or another BCS team instead of Boise State in order to prove they can run with the big dogs.  I don’t think they have anything to prove.

TCU is a 12-0 team who beat a lot of really good opponents (many on the road) and finished the season ranked 3rd in the polls and 4th in the BCS.  And they’re one of only eight teams playing in a BCS bowl game.  They’ve proved themselves enough as far as I’m concerned.

Besides, Boise State (who is also undefeated) isn’t an easy team to beat.  Just ask OU, who lost to them in the Fiesta Bowl two years ago.  The Broncos will also be looking for payback since losing to the Frogs last year in the Poinsettia Bowl (and seriously, when was the last time the Poinsettia Bowl came up during a discussion of the BCS?).

The regular season is over, and the good guys won.  Now, bring on the bowl games!

Hook ‘Em Horns and Go Frogs!

Previously:
For Longhorns, 2009 is all or nothing

I wondered at the beginning of this year’s college football season how accurate EA Sports’ NCAA College Football 09 for the Wii was at predicting the outcomes of the real games.  Each week, I played the game as the University of Texas versus their scheduled opponent for the week and then compared that score to the real score.

A few of the Wii scores were fairly close to the actual ones (Florida Atlantic, Rice, Texas A&M) while others were way off (Arkansas, Missouri, Baylor), margins of error probably not too different than what you’d get from ESPN and other “expert” prognosticators.

Which brings us to the final Texas game of the season, the Fiesta Bowl.  It’s been yet another wacky season thanks to the BCS computers, biased voters, and controversial Big 12 tie-breaking rules.  Heck, it even involved competing fleets of airplanes over Austin and Norman as the Red River rivals taunted each other by air.

But while Florida and OU are busy trying to justify why each of their 1-loss teams are more deserving of the National Championship than undefeated Utah, the Longhorns are happy to settle the score with the Ohio State Buckeyes.  UT and OSU have met twice before, in 2005 and 2006.  The Horns won the first with Vince Young on their way to a National Championship, then lost the second with Colt McCoy — that game only being Colt’s second game of his college career.

A lot has changed since 2006, however.  Colt is now a Heisman runner-up, and the Horns are a dropped pass and missed tackle away from a perfect season.  Ohio State, meanwhile, has two losses for the season, both to teams who squared off against each other in the Rose Bowl.  Texas had one of the toughest schedules in the nation, while the highest ranked opponent beaten by Ohio State was No. 18 Wisconsin, and even that was only a 3-point victory.  (It should also be noted that Wisconsin went on to get thumped by Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl.)

Now some might argue that a team’s regular season schedule isn’t always an indicator of how well they’ll do in the bowl game, and that’s true (just ask Alabama).  So how well have Texas and Ohio State fared in recent bowls?  Well, the Buckeyes have been to the National Championship game the last two years, but they lost both times.  Texas, on the other hand, has won its last four consecutive bowl games, two of which have been against Big 10 teams.

And this year should make it number five, with Texas beating the Buckeyes 20 to 7, according to the Wii.

As always, I’ll update the blog after the game with the real score.

And as always, Hook ‘Em, Horns!

Real Score: 24-21.

Wow, what an incredible game!  Frustrating, of course, for most of the game, but the final two minutes made up for it.  It was very fitting that the final touchdown was made by Quan Cosby, who, like Vince Young, can say the final play of his college football career was a game-winning touchdown made in the final moments of a BCS game.  Coupled with Brian Orakpo’s sack seconds later, you couldn’t have asked for a more fitting ending to the season.

The Longhorns finish the season 12-1, and while they likely won’t end up as national champions, they have nothing to feel bad about.  Keep in mind that most people looked at their schedule this year and expected them to finish the regular season 9-3 or 8-4, maybe 10-2 if they were lucky.  Yet, they were nearly flawless.

I just want to say I’ve had a lot of fun this season doing these prediction posts.  If anything, it’s given me an excuse to play video games once a week.  Maybe, I’ll do it again next season just for grins.

Of course, right now that seems like an eternity away.

With so much focus on the various BCS predictions, it’s easy to forget there’s a football game on Thanksgiving night.  But of course it’s not just any game, it’s Texas vs. Texas A&M.

Now, you’re probably wondering, so what?  The 10-1 Horns are No. 2 in the nation, and the Aggies are 4-7.  Heck, A&M (“the floormats of the Big 12″) even lost to Baylor this year!  A blowout is all but guaranteed.

Or is it?

Aggie fans will be quick to point out that Texas has lost to A&M the past two consecutive years, and I’m betting they’d like to make it three.

Oh, who are we kidding?  A&M doesn’t have the same caliber team it’s had the past few years, and Texas is playing at least as well as it did in 2005.  The Horns will win this one and win big: 41-0, according to NCAA Football ‘09 for the Wii.

But with almost nothing to gain from the victory, why is it still such an important game?

Because it’s Texas vs. A&M.

OU might be UT’s biggest threat, but A&M is still their biggest rival.  After all, it’s the Aggies who are mentioned every time the Longhorns sing their fight song:

Texas Fight, Texas Fight,
And it’s goodbye to A&M.

So have another round of turkey, dressing, and burnt orange pumpkin pie, and let’s all be thankful for another Texas Longhorn victory.

Hook ‘Em, Horns!

Real Score: 49-9.  Wow!  A pretty close prediction (closer than I expected) and the largest margin of victory for Texas over A&M in 110 years!  With the exception of a missed field goal, it was a picture-perfect game.  Unfortunately, it probably won’t be enough to stay ahead of OU in the polls, but the Horns have done everything they could possibly do.  If they make it to the Fiesta Bowl, I will be satisfied.  More thoughts about the flawed BCS system and Big 12 tie-breaker method later.  But for now, just appreciate an 11-1 season that far exceeded all expectations.